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While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.
In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.
Bernstein estimates the global market for financial contracts will grow to $900 trillion by 2035, up from $700 trillion last year, and if prediction markets capture just 0.5% of that total, volume would increase by $4.7 trillion per year.
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Peter Kesitilwe, CEO of the AiA, added: “SmartSoft already has significant exposure to African markets, and we look forward to working with their team on issues ranging from B2B licensing and market access to responsible gaming, channelisation and sustainable regulation.”
The AiA said this was the latest example of its objective of bringing industry stakeholders into “constructive dialogue” as Africa’s gambling market develops.
“Our aim is to create an environment in which regulators, operators and suppliers can engage constructively on the opportunities and challenges facing the industry across the continent,” Kesitilwe stated.
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Regarding account takeovers, the guide emphasised technical mitigations such as two-factor authentication for withdrawals and changes to banking details.
For poker collusion and bot use, recommended contractual provisions allow operators to redistribute illegitimate winnings to affected players. The guide noted that courts have validated such actions when supported by robust data.
The ANJ has called for operators to provide proof rather than act on suspicion alone. The guide outlined the types of evidence and “converging indicators” (faisceaux d’indices) that French courts have accepted in previous litigations, including IP addresses, device logs and connection timings.
