Gold Lab

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A Bank of America study released on 1 September found that the median deposit account balance of households that participated in online betting was 59% higher than households that avoided the activity. As prediction markets rapidly expand alongside traditional sports betting, the findings have prompted “some to blur the lines between entertainment and investment”, according to a proprietary study undertaken by BofA.

The ongoing battle between states’ rights advocates and those who support federal regulations in sports trading is not black and white. Carton indicated in his monologue that engaging in the trading of sports-event contracts amounts to unregulated gambling. Designated Contracts Markets, better known as prediction markets, are regulated on the federal level by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

On Wednesday, a CFTC deputy general counsel posted an ad on LinkedIn for a senior position with the commission. It appears that the attorney is seeking assistance in crafting formal rules for event contracts, a set of regulations he described as the “most impactful” the commission has written “in decades”.

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“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”

Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.

While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.

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Notably, ethics concerns may have played a critical factor in the rejection of the bill. Lawmakers from both sides did not feel that an updated version of the text released on Sunday went far enough in addressing concerns related to senior officials maintaining or endorsing crypto business ties. However, a group of Republicans claimed they made a series of concessions when US President Donald Trump agreed to modifications on Sunday night that contained stronger ethics measures, the Associated Press reported. The 11th hour concessions were not enough to appease potential swing voters among Senate Democrats.

“This legislation failed squarely because Republicans refuse to say no to the president,” Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego said in a statement. “It takes 60 votes to pass a bill, and instead of spending their time twisting themselves into knots to appease President Trump, Republicans should have worked more closely with Senate Democrats to craft a bill that could pass with strong ethics provisions.”

Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, the leading negotiator for Republicans, berated her Democratic colleagues in a statement, saying they “played games” and “were never truly serious about protecting consumers”.