Serengeti Kings

What is Serengeti Kings?

The case, which dates back to November 2021, was filed by Evolution against Black Cube, after the intelligence firm was found to have been secretly investigating Evolution’s activities from December 2020.

Playtech commissioned Black Cube’s investigation, which Evolution has described as a “smear campaign” involving secretly recorded interviews with staff members.

The dossier accused Evolution of supplying games into banned and sanctioned markets, including territories under US sanctions such as Iran and Syria.

What is Serengeti Kings?

Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.

As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.

With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.

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In May, the NFL sent a letter to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission with a list of certain event contracts it deemed objectionable. By July, the league doubled down with public comments to the CFTC after the agency issued draft regulations for the contracts. The NFL cited props on player injuries, penalty totals and missed field goals as those that fit the bill. Goodell, however, conceded that the NFL has held discussions regarding prediction markets as public policy evolves.

Two other leagues, Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League, have each signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the CFTC that allows participating teams to partner with the operators.

“We don’t think we have to be first in this, we feel like we’re going to be right,” Goodell said. “The best thing to do is be patient and make sure you keep the integrity of the game number one.”