Tsar Wars

What is Tsar Wars?

So just around the time my subscription base is starting to take off and I’m wondering whether I should focus on my own stuff entirely and drop everything else, knowing the End is Near anyway, I get a call from Bill, saying that CalvinAyre.com (will no longer publish gambling news).

Same thing that happened in 2012. I’m sad, but once again, I’m just beaten to the punch. My whole adult life has been that way and I can’t really explain how or why other than to say it I’m constantly being pushed in the direction I’m already going in.

So here’s what happens from here, in my view. In a few months, food price increases are going to start to become very glaringly obvious. Price inflation will not be able to be hidden anymore. You can tinker with the inflation statistics only so much, but once it gets to food prices, it’s game over. It’s already happening. Food bills are rising and are about to rise much faster.

How to play Tsar Wars

Are you listening, Oh you gaming industry execs? If you’re a CEO reading this, or a CFO, and you’re struggling with shut down casinos and mounting debt, I’m talking to you. You have only a few months at most to protect your companies from a hyperinflationary nuclear bomb that is about to go off and destroy everything in its path. The fuse is being lit as I write this. I will now describe the fuse.

About 18 months ago I wrote this weird, esoteric, wacky article. I made the case that once U.S. dollar interest rates went negative, all commodities would warp into backwardation. Meaning, the spot prices for all commodities would become more expensive than their futures price. This is now happening. Almost all commodities are now in persistent backwardation. All grains, sugar, lumber, and cotton; energy including natural gas and both Brent and WTI crude oil; base metals including copper, tin, and iron ore. They are all in backwardation now, and some have been that way for months now. The CRB commodities index is now climbing at its fastest pace ever, doubling since March.

And this is with various forms of lockdowns persisting in Europe and the U.S., which should mute industrial demand for commodities. Paper currencies are dying. That’s what’s happening, pure and simple. And they are about to get their death blow.

How to play Tsar Wars

But in recently months the company has invested heavily, with capex surging from R277 million to R492 million.

“We have executed one of the largest capability building projects in the company’s history and invested in marketing, customer-acquisition and market share gains in a very intentional way,” Bengtsson said. “We are encouraged that, even with continued investment in the business, adjusted EBITDA growth has accelerated relative to the first half of 2025.”

The company is placing an increased focus on efficiency and margins, with plans for a “lower-cost, more centralised operating model” with the profitability of Sun International’s underperforming assets in mind.