Lucky Streak

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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.

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The AiA has called for collaboration in the form of strengthening cooperation, sharing good practices and maintaining safer gambling at the forefront of policy agenda.

Additionally, the Africa Safer Gambling Week will emphasise the importance of channelisation into legal offerings, with the AiA warning the black market often neglects player protection.

Olabimpe Akingba, head of responsible gaming at pawaTech and AiA board member, said the initiative reflects the association’s push to turn cross-border collaboration within Africa’s iGaming sector into tangible action on player protection.

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That management also involves balancing margin and longevity. Wilson notes that Jackpot engines need to balance commercial performance with a sustainable and enjoyable player experience. Operators need enough control to manage contribution levels, drop mechanics and reward frequency, while ensuring the product remains engaging and fair for players over time.

 “How do you balance that against not draining too much of the players’ funds and making sure that it has the stickiness, and that we’re not pushing players away, but encouraging them to come back?” he asks. “That really is the science.”

For Splash Tech, optimisation means protecting a safe and enjoyable experience while giving operators the opportunity to increase gross gaming revenue. “Getting that balance right is why we exist, really,” Wilson says.