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The American Gaming Association (AGA) believes many federally regulated prediction markets have transformed into illegal gambling and sports betting outfits, siphoning revenue from the legal, taxed gaming industry. Prediction markets, the trade group argues, threaten jobs and tax revenue, as do other forms of illegal gambling like skill games, sweepstakes casinos, and offshore sportsbooks.

Illegal gambling operators are thriving at the expense of American consumers, siphoning billions in tax revenue from state governments, and undercutting the efforts of the legal market,” said AGA President and CEO Bill Miller. “It’s time for a national crackdown on the pervasive illegal market that is draining state coffers and putting people at risk.”

The AGA estimates that Americans wager $673.6 billion with illegal and unregulated gambling operators a year, with unregulated online slots and table games accounting for the lion’s share of the unlawful bets at $466.2 billion.

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The president’s critical view of betting is on par with other candidates. Studies by the Workers’ Party (PT) indicate that three out of four Brazilians are against betting establishments. This is the president’s justification against the sector.

What the president didn’t address is the tax revenue from betting.

In 2025, Brazil collected almost BRL10 billion ($1.97 billion) in tax revenue from the licensed sector. In the first seven months of this year alone, BRL8.7 billion generated by the activity was delivered to public coffers. The Federal Revenue Service itself estimates that the sector should reach BRL16 billion in revenue during 2026.

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Former US congressman George Santos has been permanently prohibited from trading on the prediction market Kalshi, the company announced late last week. 

Friday’s announcement followed an investigation that found he manipulated contract prices linked to his anticipated attendance at the 2026 State of the Union address.

He was also fined $71,356.